Wednesday, February 17, 2010

Who’ll be Buying In Butte 2010-2019?


So you’ve decided to wait to sell your home until prices go back up? You’ll be hearing lots of predictions on what’s to come, most fortune-tellers are saying that prices still have not hit bottom. These same soothsayers are projecting that once the rebound does occur, prices will begin to rise slowly. How should you prepare for that day when it does arrive?

According to an article distributed by RISMedia, there are 4 major demographic developments to watch for in the coming decade:

Aging Baby Boomers (55-64 years old) – Butte County has long been a retirement destination for metro California retirees, in 2008 15% of the county population was over age 65. While the new wave of retirees are less predictable in their housing preferences, look for them to move away from traditional retirement housing scenarios, opting instead for mixed age settings that suit a higher activity level. Walkable neighborhoods near suburban town centers also suit this age group.

Younger Baby Boomers (46-54 years old) – This age set will have a more challenging time moving due to the poor equity positions that the housing crash has contributed to. When they can sell it’s predicted that they will be looking for somewhat the same situation as their older counterparts.

Generation Y (techies) – Look for Butte County’s percentage of home ownership to dip from the current (2000) 60.7 percent, as this group has had their home ownership dreams tempered by the reality of market changes. Rentals that serve their connectivity needs and are close-in will be of the most interest to this group, so apartments, townhomes and rental housing that meets these needs will be in the highest demand.

Immigrants – As of the 2000 U.S. Census 7.7% of Butte County residents were foreign born and in 2008 people of Hispanic descent made up 12.9 %of the county population. As these groups grow by both internal (births) and external (immigration) methods, their preference for clustered housing will benefit larger homes and those in neighborhoods with strong communal opportunities.

“All of these groups have some characteristics that reflect a desire to live in more pedestrian-friendly, transit-oriented, mixed-use environments that de-emphasize auto dependency, whether the location is urban or suburban. Among the majors factors driving urbanization: 1) growth of two-person households and single households without children (among both baby boomers and Generation Y); 2) a halt to baby boomer migration to the suburbs; 3) the likelihood of Generation Y to rent rather than own; and 4) public policies encouraging compact development.”

Based on these factors look for developments that follow the ‘new urbanism’ model best demonstrated in Chico by Doe Mill Neighborhood and other projects by New Urban Builders.

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